News, filings, etc.
7/13-8/9
News filings etc.
GS initiates on TWLO, BRZE, and KVYO at buy (link)
Emailexpert summarizes Goldman’s thesis as AI favoring modern customer-engagement platforms rather than making marketing software obsolete. The argument is that AI increases the burden of legacy technology, potentially accelerating enterprise migration to newer stacks. Goldman reportedly believes the market is underestimating the infrastructure differentiation at Braze and Klaviyo.
BN eyeing 10% stake in Hudson Square Properties at $5,600/sqft (link)
Sean Trace and I talked a bit about the basics of investing - dollar cost averaging, index funds, etc. (link)
Citi initiated on Bel-Fuse at Buy with a $325 PT
KVYO new CFO
“Prior to joining Klaviyo, Ms. Smith served as the Chief Financial Officer of CYBR, an identity security company, from January 2025 until February 2026, when CyberArk was acquired by PANW. Ms. Smith also held various other finance leadership positions at CyberArk from October 2015 to December 2024.”
$550k base + 50% bonus
$15m RSUs
$3m PSUs with Feb 2029 stock price targets of $30, $50, $75
Bernstein cuts PTs on T, TMUS, VZ, CHTR, CMCSA due to Starlink broadband threat (link)
LNW reiterates FY26 guide and updates on the buyback (link)
M-HSD AEBITDA growth for 2026
Targeting below 3.0x net leverage during 1H27
Repurchased $134m in 2Q (~1.5-2% of total)
EXPE becomes Allegiant’s first ever OTA partner (link)
KKR-led group raises takeover bid for Ireland’s DCC to $7.9b (link)
Longleaf on GLIBK (link)
PNR cut its 2026 outlook and named recently departed CFO as interim CFO (link)
FY rev expected -4-7% (previously +2-4%)
FY EPS midpoint expected $4.70 (previously $5.35)
Frontier to offer Starlink wi-fi (link)
ASTS to issue $1b convertible senior notes due 2034 (link)
Intends to get 45+ satellites into orbit by EOY
Analysts not expecting positive FCF until 2028. $3b cumulative use 2026-2027.
ISRG 2Q earnings (link)
2026 guide
Worldwide da Vinci procedure growth of 13.5-15.5%
Non-GAAP opex growth of 11-13%
Non-GAAP GMs of 68-69% (incl 1pt of tariff impact)
Under pressure from Chinese competitors
Benchmark maintains $380 PT on CHTR (link)
“There is an increasing disconnect between even the lowest analyst estimates throughout the remaining decade and the stock’s valuation,” Harrigan argues.
How Apollo-owned Michaels turned two rivals’ bankruptcies into a growth strategy (link)
RIP Party City
CEO of Michaels: “I always tell people that the customer has no clue who owns the company and doesn’t care,” he says. “It’s almost irrelevant as long as you’re delivering for the customer.”
AWS exec to join META to help with AI infra build out (link)
Meta in Talks to Lease Computing Power to Anthropic (link)
$10b over 2 years
Compass Pathways gains Jefferies support as COMP360 data distinguishes psychological support from psychotherapy (link)
“Jefferies highlighted that 78% of the more than six-hour dosing sessions were spent in silence, with providers largely remaining outside patients’ awareness while remaining available if needed.”
“Jefferies also noted that Compass Pathways’ trial design differs from the approach taken by Lykos Therapeutics’ MDMA-assisted therapy application, which was rejected by the FDA in 2024 for PTSD. The analysts wrote that the FDA had raised concerns around Lykos’ use of psychotherapy alongside treatment, among other issues.”
“The analysts maintained that Compass Pathways could eventually achieve peak sales of more than $1.5 billion, which they estimated could support a valuation of $3 billion to $4.5 billion based on a 2-3x multiple.”
HGV refinances $850m Term Loan B
Pricing unchanged, pushed from 2028 to 2033
ALCO President and CEO John Kiernan extends contract to 2030 (link)
“…will also be eligible to earn real estate incentive bonus awards for each fiscal year upon achievement of specified real estate milestones of the Company in accordance with the terms set forth in the Employment Agreement, which real estate bonus(es) will be payable (A) at least 75% in cash and (B) in the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors or Compensation Committee, up to 25% in the form of a performance-based restricted stock unit grant…”
“… eligible to earn up to 160,000 PSUs based on the achievement of specified 60 trading day volume-weighted average price per share targets during the period commencing October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2030, ranging from $40 per share to $110 per share.”
KKR Appoints Former Manulife CEO Roy Gori as Senior Advisor (link)
CME on Prediction Markets
CMSA 2Q26 results
Surpassed 10m wireless lines. Penetration remains <7% in addressable market.
Net additions of 448k. Best Q on record.
Resi Connectivity and Platform rev -4%, AEBTIDA -8%
Domestic Resi Broadband Customer Net Losses improved 34k yoy (167k vs 201k last year). Total 28.5m.
Domestic Broadband revenue -5.5% “due to lower average rates and a decline in the number of domestic broadband customers.”
Near term softness in Theme Parks. Rev +2.7%, AEBITDA -5.1%. Opex +5.7%.
“This quarter, broadband downstream traffic was up same as in the past couple of quarters, about 10%. But the upstream traffic was 2.5x that volume growth. And that’s being driven, I think, by rapidly changing AI queries.”
Blackstone capital metrics
Compute shortage
POOL confirms annual adj EPS guide (ex CEO transition costs) of $10.87-$11.17
Burford
MKTX being acquired by ICE for $167/sh
ARKO acquiring a fuel distribution company (link)
$30m annual contributed AEBITDA
$205m cash, $30m stock (earn-out)
Arie Kotler on the deal":
GLIBA going to start paying a dividend ($60m annualized, ~6% yield)
Disclosure: none of this is investment advice; I/we may own positions in securities mentioned