Nice writeup. It's very interesting given the near term opportunity. If they come close to FY24 guidance and then give an increased guide for FY25 they could be trading at like 2-3x EBITDA. Management thinks FCF conversion will be at least 50%.
They are trying to get to 9-12k units (rooms) by the end of FY24, up from 2,750 at the end of FY23. If they can get half of those rooms operational, and another half operational for half of the year, they will exceed their FY24 guidance for both revenues and EBITDA.
The Wyndham key money also eliminates any need for financing / short term working capital and can be recycled into even more new properties. There is also a bunch of hair as you pointed out, but if they can execute over the next few quarters the stock likely re-rates
Stumbled across this one as well. While having Wyndham there is nice, I’m reminded of Theranos/Walgreens, GM/Nikola etc. LUXH doesn’t fit my mandate either, need to find time to dig in. Stock doing well lately.
Nice writeup. It's very interesting given the near term opportunity. If they come close to FY24 guidance and then give an increased guide for FY25 they could be trading at like 2-3x EBITDA. Management thinks FCF conversion will be at least 50%.
They are trying to get to 9-12k units (rooms) by the end of FY24, up from 2,750 at the end of FY23. If they can get half of those rooms operational, and another half operational for half of the year, they will exceed their FY24 guidance for both revenues and EBITDA.
The Wyndham key money also eliminates any need for financing / short term working capital and can be recycled into even more new properties. There is also a bunch of hair as you pointed out, but if they can execute over the next few quarters the stock likely re-rates
I haven't read it because I didn't end up doing anything here, but if you do dig in you may want to take a look: https://www.bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/luxurban-hotels-luxh-the-bed-sheets-should-be-made-out-of-red-flags
Stumbled across this one as well. While having Wyndham there is nice, I’m reminded of Theranos/Walgreens, GM/Nikola etc. LUXH doesn’t fit my mandate either, need to find time to dig in. Stock doing well lately.