Stonks, etc. etc.
Zuckerberg is the greatest of all time. Go look at his Instagram. No more Zuck slander, ok?
CCOI - go listen to the 4Q23 call. Walt from Lightshed throws a fit!! Pretty entertaining. Also the call is - 1h40m long????? I don’t have access to the full note but Walt’s note says, “We do not expect Cogent (CCOI) to generate enough free cash flow to fund its dividend, let alone its growth. We expect this to require the company to perpetually increase its debt at prevailing interest rates. Unfortunately, we also expect Cogent’s EBITDA in 2028 to be lower than 2024.” Not sure how they get there. They just raised the dividend a bit, again. I don’t see them not being able to pay it but we will see, I guess. They missed on EBITDA by like 20m. Came in at 111m and I think sell-side was at 130m. Honestly not sure what to make out of it. Have been asking around and it doesn’t seem like anyone else does either. There were some explainable factors talked about on the call - 10m or so of bad debt, audit expense, bonuses, etc. I think where I am landing on it right now is that it’s going to be messy for the next few quarters but that only accounts for a small chunk of the intrinsic value anyway. I could see things getting ugly later this year. Some of the numbers could potentially look bad - Sprint payments dropping from 29m to 8m. But apparently no one cares about wave backlog doubling QoQ and the fact that they have ~$2b+ worth of IPv4 addresses on a $3.8b market cap. On that topic - don’t understand why Cloudflare says IPv6 is 30-40% share of the interwebs but they said 7% on the call.
I think this is my favorite book- read it in like two sittings. Just Like Someone Without Mental Illness, Only More So by Mark Vonnegut. Guy had multiple psychotic breaks and then got into Harvard Medical School at 27. Incredible story and fantastic writer (well duh, he is Kurt’s son). link
The beat on Climate by BigXthaplug go crazy
Does anyone know what the f is going on at Expedia?? How are they so bad? I’ve never seen such a palpable example of management actually making a difference as when looking at BKNG v EXPE. It kind of makes me doubt the whole Buffett thing about investing in businesses that an idiot could run. Because that would certainly apply to OTAs yet EXPE has gone ~nowhere in the last five years. Yet still, against my better judgement, I remain interested and want to learn more. Reach out if you follow it. And especially reach out if you know ValueAct because I want to know what they are thinking. 13F shows it as their third largest position.
MKSI’s soon-to-leave CFO sold all $4m of his stock. Also not exactly sure how the POS AM filings work but Carlye is out too. Speaking of Carlyle, they raised $17b last Q!!! Go take a look at that one.
Lots of interesting stuff going on with AI in finance. Who has been the most impressive you have seen? Check out fleet.so
Does anyone have strong opinions on Mark Meldrum for CFA L2?
What are some of the best things you have seen written on investment company culture? Some things that come to mind:
The Characteristics of Successful Investment Firms - Dr. Charles D. Ellis
You and Your Research - Richard Hamming
Couple things by Graham Duncan + Rob Vinall
What is Elliott doing at ETSY? What do they see there?
Psalm 147: 10-11: “He does not delight in the strength of the horse; He takes no pleasure in the legs of a man. The Lord takes pleasure in those who fear Him, In those who hope in His mercy.”
I can’t find a cheap large cap for the life of me. Who’s got ideas? I looked at like ~30 funds I follow and hardly any of the stocks they bought in 4Q23 are anywhere near the 4Q low.
Brett Caughran had a fantastic video on The Rise of the Pods. I didn’t know hardly anything about pods but I’m very interested now. Who are the best follows for pod shops on Twitter? Either people that talk about them or people that work for them.