Links - Podcast and Book Recommendations, Short Little Notes about CCOI, WOSG, PYPL, and More
Also - Who Is Michael Platt and how is BlueCrest so good?
Investing Section
New podcast - Rainmakers. “This show is going to be an exploration on the world’s best investors from past and present to see how exactly they made their returns.” First episode on Richard Rainwater here.
I’m really impressed by Brandon Daniel at Atai Capital. The boldness of starting Atai at his age stands out to me in and of itself, but the letters are excellent as well. Here is 4Q23 including an update on AstroNova.
Rolex is not giving Watches of Switzerland the good watches. What in the world do you do if you’re a shareholder in this situation? Terrifying. Link.
I have been thinking a lot about semicap equipment providers and the outlook for 2024. TSM expects ex-Memory semi to grow 10% and foundry to grow 20%. In what scenario could semi take another big leg down in 2024? I can’t come up with anything but I am still really new to the space. Bernstein thinks WFE will be down 5% in CY24.
CCOI seems like a really interesting situation. Please reach out if you have any familiarity with it, I am trying to talk to everyone I can about it. The fact that they modified Dave’s non-equity incentive plan to be based on Wave revenue is telling.
A request for you, dear reader - if you work or have worked at a hedge fund, please reach out to me. I am trying to figure out how bonuses typically work and started with basically no knowledge a week ago and still have a lot to learn. Would love the opportunity to ask you just a couple of basic questions. That said, a couple of people reached out after I tweeted about it and helped me get up to speed. It was tremendously helpful and I am continually amazed by what Twitter can do.
TCI still killing it, as TCI tends to do.
Who the heck is Michael Platt of BlueCrest Capital? It seems like they are also killing it. I can’t seem to find any information about them. Please reach out if you know anything.
Does anyone here follow PYPL on a more-than-meme level? The amount of downgrades lately has been palpable. I think the key questions are 1) when does core button share loss stop, and 2) when does transaction margin stabilize? But those are really tough to answer. One thing that I didn’t know previously and thought was interesting was that, according to a writeup from some CBS students, cross-border checkout accounts for >50% of gross-profit. Directionally, you could infer this from knowing how profitable cross-border is for V/MA, but the magnitude still surprised me. I talked with them about it and they said it was sourced from a Goldman report and confirmed independently by looking at fee disclosures online.
Shoutout to Speedwell LLC for getting their RH report mentioned by Gary on the call. That’s pretty legit.
Non-Investing Section
I wrote about why I post faith-based content online and what direction I am looking to go with that. See here.
Sasha Chapin is an excellent writer. Check out his Substack. Here is Playing in the ruins. “When this happens—when expectation breaks down, and you are living in a shipwreck of your expectations—a precious state of being can dawn, if you’re lucky. This is the state of Playing In The Ruins. You’re not seeing the landscape around you as something that needs to transform. You’re just seeing it as the scrapyard it is. And then you can look around yourself and say, okay, what is actually here, when I’m not telling myself constant lies about what it’s going to be one day. Who am I actually, in this fallen place, this actuality foreign to my hopes and dreams.”
I really like Paul Graham. I can’t quite figure out why his “How To Do Great Work” essay isn’t sitting with me. I think it might be something along the lines of - it should be titled “How To Get Into YC” instead.
Watchman Nee. “Some of us force ourselves to do things we don't want to do and to live a life we cannot in fact live, and think that in making this effort we are being Christians. That is very far removed from what Isaac was.” Full excerpt here.
I have always had a tough time reading the Old Testament. To be completely honest, it often just feels dry. And confusing. Nee’s Changed Into His Likeness is an excellent companion to read through Genesis with. It has helped me better understand the significance of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. This time around has been a more engaging read and I actually feel like I am getting a lot out of the Old Testament, which wasn’t necessarily the case before.
Rob Burbea is the Jhana meditation guy. He has a great series of talks on it. I was surprised to hear him talk about Christ in this snippet from toward the end of his life. Does anyone know - Was Rob a Christian?
Sophia Yang, Head of Developer Relations at Mistral, runs an excellent data science/machine learning book club.
I read a fantastic book by Mark Vonnegut called Just Like Someone Without Mental Illness Only More So. It’s only <200 pages but I think it is the fastest I have ever read a book before. He is an excellent writer. Further, his story is incredible. He is the son of the famous author Kurt Vonnegut. Mark was put into a mental hospital several times starting I think in his late teens/early 20s. When he was 27, he was accepted into Harvard Medical School and became a pediatrician. Link.
Disclosure: This is not investment advice. I/We may own the securities mentioned.